Nextpower Inc. [NXT] — Financial Model Notes

formerly Nextracker Inc.; CIK 0001852131; fiscal year ends 31 March

Every figure used anywhere in this memo, with its derivation and its source. As of 2026-07-29. Nothing below is asserted; each line is either quoted from a filing or arithmetically derived from lines that are, with the arithmetic shown.

1. Revenue

1.1 Annual, as filed

Source: XBRL Revenues, annual periods, CIK 0001852131. FY2024–FY2026 confirmed against the FY2026 10-K income statement ($2,499,841k / $2,959,197k / $3,559,390k).

1.2 Quarterly

Q1–Q3 from XBRL Revenues, quarterly periods. Q4 derived as FY − (Q1+Q2+Q3) — correct by construction, not by stitching tagged quarters (the defect that inflated SMR's TTM by 62% and understated BLLN's by 18%).

Independent confirmation of the derivation: the Q4 FY26 press release (8-K 2026-05-12) prints Q4 FY26 revenue $881m · Q3 FY26 $909m · Q4 FY25 $924m. The derived $880.4m and $924.3m tie. ✓

No stitching risk exists on this name in the first place: NXT's fiscal year ends 31 March, so the screen's "TTM to 2026-03-31" is simply the audited FY2026 — a single clean annual period.

1.3 Operating income, quarterly

Q4 FY2026 operating income fell 21.3% YoY and declined sequentially in every quarter of FY2026.

1.4 Demonstrated CAGR — window named

(3,559.390 / 1,902.1)^(1/3) − 1 = 1.87129^(0.33333) − 1 = 23.23%

FY2023 → FY2026, 3 years, 23.2%. Reproduces the screen's revenue_cagr_demonstrated exactly and identifies the window the screen did not state.

1.5 Revenue by geography

Brazil was 11% of revenue in FY2024 and below 10% in FY2025 and FY2026. No other country exceeds 10%.

All FY2026 growth is US. International revenue shrank $98.9m.

1.6 Revenue mix, tracker vs non-tracker

Percentages quoted directly from the FY2026 10-K MD&A ("approximately 88%… approximately 12%… up from approximately 8%"); dollar figures derived. FY30 target from the rebrand release, 8-K 2025-11-12.

1.7 Volume

38 GW delivered in FY2026 vs 34 GW in FY2025 — +13% volume against +20.3% revenue. The 7pp gap is price/mix, of which the 10-K names $365.0m of "point in time revenue reflecting year over year increase in components directly shipped to our customers' designated locations including software licenses" plus "additional contributions from our recent business acquisitions". Cumulative tracker shipments have surpassed 160 GW.

2. The Section 45X credit — the central calculation in this memo

2.1 As disclosed

"During fiscal year 2026, we recognized approximately $379.9 million of reduction to cost of sales related to the 45X Credit… compared to $224.9 million recognized in fiscal year 2025." — FY2026 10-K MD&A

"During the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024, the Company… recognized a cumulative reduction to cost of sales of $121.4 million related to 45X Credit vendor rebates earned on production of eligible components shipped… January 1, 2023 through March 31, 2024… starting in fiscal year 2025, vendor rebates are taken into account to evaluate management's performance." — FY2026 10-K, non-GAAP footnote (2)

2.2 The effect on gross profit

                                        FY2025        FY2026       Change
Revenue                                2,959.197     3,559.390     +600.193
GAAP gross profit                      1,008.825     1,160.095     +151.270
less 45X credit in cost of sales        (224.900)     (379.900)    (155.000)
GROSS PROFIT EXCLUDING 45X               783.925       780.195       −3.730
GAAP gross margin                          34.1%         32.6%      −1.5pp
GROSS MARGIN EXCLUDING 45X                 26.5%         21.9%      −4.6pp

The entire $151.3m of FY2026 gross-profit growth is accounted for by a $155.0m increase in a government tax credit. Excluding 45X, gross profit fell $3.7m (−0.5%) on revenue up 20.3%.

2.3 The effect on operating income

GAAP operating income FY2026                      697.266     19.59% of revenue
less 45X credit in cost of sales                 (379.900)    10.67pp
OPERATING INCOME EXCLUDING 45X                    317.366      8.92% of revenue

45X share of operating income = 379.900 / 697.266 = 54.5%

2.4 The phase-down, and the terminal-margin derivation

"The Section 45X Credit amount is reduced each year by 25% in calendar years 2030, 2031 and 2032. Under current law, there are no Section 45X Credits available for components sold after December 31, 2032… In the case of torque tubes and structural fasteners, the credit amount is equal to $0.87 per kilogram and $2.28 per kilogram, respectively, through the end of 2029." — FY2026 10-K

Terminal year of the 5-year window = FY2031 = April 2030 – March 2031
  9 months in CY2030 at 75%  +  3 months in CY2031 at 50%
  = (9/12 × 0.75) + (3/12 × 0.50) = 0.5625 + 0.1250 = 0.6875

TERMINAL MARGIN (BASE) = 8.92% + (10.67pp × 0.6875) = 8.92% + 7.34pp = 16.25%

This is the basis for the base-case terminal margin in NXT_Valuation.md, and it is stated rather than being a bare constant. The three margins run there — 19.59% (45X permanent), 16.25% (base, legislated) and 8.92% (fully ex-45X) — bracket the statute.

2.5 Tariffs, the offsetting item

Tariffs in cost of sales:  FY2025  $19.7m  →  FY2026  $130.4m   (+$110.7m, now 3.7% of revenue)

"Gross margin decreased by 150 basis points, to 32.6%… primarily resulting from the increase in tariffs noted above that were not fully included in pricing." — FY2026 10-K

3. Profitability and cash conversion

Non-GAAP reconciliation as filed (10-K):

Note what changed in the adjustment policy. The FY2024 45X catch-up of $121.4m was adjusted out as non-recurring. From FY2025 the 10-K states that "vendor rebates are taken into account to evaluate management's performance," and no 45X line appears in the FY2025 or FY2026 adjustments. The adjusted figures for FY2025 and FY2026 therefore include the full 45X benefit. The disclosure of the change is honest; the consequence is that neither the GAAP nor the adjusted margin strips the credit, and §2.2/§2.3 above are the only way to see it.

Cash-conversion driver (FY2026 CFO $562.9m vs net income $585.9m):

"…accounts receivable and contract assets in aggregate increased $64.6 million… coupled with a $267.1 million increase attributable to our Section 45X credit receivable. Inventory increased approximately $46.6 million… other assets increased $94.3 million driven by advance tax payments, and accounts payable decreased about $49.4 million… Offsetting the cash outflows were increases in… customer advances of approximately $55.7 million, coupled with an increase in deferred revenue of $68.1 million driven by more deposits on higher bookings during the fiscal year." — FY2026 10-K

4. Balance sheet

As of 31 March (FY2026 10-K, in $000):

Net-cash bridge:

  Cash and cash equivalents                    1,094.976
− Debt                                             0.000     (revolver undrawn; ~$2.0bn total liquidity)
= NET CASH before the TRA                      1,094.976     <- what the screen used
− Tax Receivable Agreement liability            (372.659)     <- contractual cash obligation to Flex/TPG;
                                                                $27.4m paid in FY2026
= NET CASH used in this memo                     722.317

Current ratio 2.45x. Deferred revenue (current + long-term) of $410.0m is customer advances, not debt, and is the same $410.0m as the ASC 606 remaining performance obligation — see §6.

5. Share count — the correction

Cross-check — net income ÷ shares ≈ filed EPS:

585,883 / 147,976,256 basic    = $3.9593   vs filed basic   $3.96   ✓
585,883 / 152,710,033 diluted  = $3.8365   vs filed diluted $3.84   ✓
585,883 / 136,542,423 (screen) = $4.2909   vs filed diluted $3.84   ✗  11.7% too high

The filed EPS refutes the screen's share count directly. 136,542,423 is 9.1% below outstanding and 10.6% below diluted. The Up-C history is the likely origin — Nextracker had 74,432,619 Class B shares held by Flex/Yuma and Class A counts in the 60–70m range before the exchange, and a stale or partial dimensional figure would produce something in this neighbourhood. The error understates market cap by $1.31–1.54bn.

Not yet in any share count above: the Prevalon consideration includes $50m of Class A stock to be issued one year after closing (priced on the 60-day VWAP to 2026-05-27), and the Zimmermann consideration includes €105m of Class A stock at closing (30-day VWAP, determined at closing). ~$175m of stock, roughly 1.2% dilution, neither issued nor determinable today.

6. Backlog vs ASC 606 remaining performance obligations

Backlog duration is not disclosed. No conversion schedule, no aging, no split between purchase orders and multi-year VCAs. Coverage is computable; duration is not. Stated, not estimated.

7. Valuation inputs, assembled

Reverse DCF output at base parameters: required revenue CAGR 10.8%/yr. Demonstrated 23.2%. Margin +12.4pp. At the unadjusted 19.59% terminal margin: required 6.7%, margin +16.5pp. At a fully-ex-45X 8.92%: required 24.9%, margin −1.7pp. With no multiple re-rating (exit 19.8x) at the base margin: required 14.4%, margin +8.8pp.

8. Own multiple history — construction

Regime split. Median EV/Sales before 2025-07-28: 2.60x. Trailing-12-month median: 4.33x (n=252), within which the current 3.89x sits at the 32nd percentile. The market re-rated the name upward through the post-OBBBA year. The full history is the base anchor (larger sample, spans both regimes); the trailing-12-month median is reported alongside as the alternative it is.

9. NTM revenue build

valuation.md step 1 requires near-term consensus and could not be satisfied. Alpha Vantage EARNINGS_ESTIMATES shares the exhausted free-tier 25/day cap. No Street figure is quoted anywhere in this memo. The FY2027 leg is company guidance — a filed, dated number and the strongest available substitute. The FY2028 leg is an interpolation of two company-published figures and is the weaker leg.

Company FY2027 outlook in full (8-K 2026-05-12): revenue $3.8–4.1bn · GAAP net income $501–559m · GAAP diluted EPS $3.19–3.56 · adjusted EBITDA $825–900m · adjusted diluted EPS $4.21–4.59. The outlook "includes planned incremental costs of approximately $50 million related to the acceleration of our entry into the power conversion market," and the adjusted EBITDA range "excludes approximately $195 million for stock-based compensation, net intangible amortization, and acquisition related costs."

10. Mention frequency — method

Word counts, so the normalisation is checkable: FY25Q1 2,963 · Q2 3,238 · Q3 3,381 · Q4 3,644 · FY26Q1 2,917 · Q2 3,253 · Q3 3,700 · Q4 3,591.

11. Screen-input audit — the corrections, consolidated

Note the contrast with the companion name in this run. On RDDT every screen error ran in the direction of harshness (margin understated by 8.0pp); on NXT every error ran in the direction of generosity (margin overstated by 6.9pp). The scanner's errors are not systematically conservative, and a book that trusts the screen's ranking is trusting a ranking whose errors have no consistent sign.

12. Provenance

• Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-03-31, filed 2026-05-19, accession 0001852131-26-000017
• Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-03-31, filed 2025-05-22, accession 0001852131-25-000021
• Form 8-K Item 2.02, filed 2026-05-12, accession 0001852131-26-000014, Exhibit 99.1 (Q4 FY26; FY2027 outlook)
• Form 8-K Item 3.02/7.01, filed 2026-05-28, accession 0001852131-26-000020 (Prevalon Energy)
• Form 8-K Item 3.02/7.01, filed 2026-06-22, accession 0001852131-26-000026 (Zimmermann PV-Steel)
• Form 8-K Item 5.03/7.01, filed 2025-11-12, accession 0001852131-25-000069, Exhibit 99.1 (rebrand; FY30 targets)
• DEF 14A filed 2026-07-07, accession 0001852131-26-000038 (annual meeting 2026-08-18)
• Quarterly earnings releases, Ex-99.1 to 8-K Item 2.02, FY25Q1–FY26Q4 (eight filings)
• data.sec.gov XBRL companyfacts and submissions, CIK 0001852131, retrieved 2026-07-29
• Alpaca Markets: daily bars (split-adjusted, IEX feed) and options snapshots, close 2026-07-28
• reports/scan_all_v2/NXT_analysis.json (Tier-1 screen), as of 2026-07-28
• reports/scan_all_v2/*.json — 4,018 records with status == OK, for the growth-matched comparator set